“Bull market distribution has started” – 5 things to watch in bitcoins this week

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the new week with a race towards historic highs, when the bulls save the day – and the week – at the last minute.

BTC’s side price promotion week ended just in time for the weekly closing, with bitcoin back to $ 66,000.

This is a classic step that has become too well known in recent weeks, and the focus is now on bullish results again.

With Wall Street still open, Monday has not yet set the tone for the third week of “Moonvember,” which still has a price target approaching $ 100,000 at the end of the month.

Can bitcoin get there? The Cointelegraph discusses five factors that could help shape the BTC price trajectory in the coming days.

The weekly closure leaves no room for bears

It was not necessary for those who were interested in what would happen at the Sunday weekly deadline – Bitcoin did not disappoint.

After watching sideways for most of the week, BTC / USD rose to the opportunity in a classic style to seal a new high-stakes weekly candle that reached $ 65,500.

Winnings of $ 1,000 came literally in the last hour, characteristic of the behavior of recent weeks.

Bitcoin thus came to a weekly conclusion over a multi-month trend that had previously been considered a important test total strength.

For the popular TechDev analyst, the closure was remarkable for another reason, exceeding the level of 1,618 Fibonacci, thus copying the action, which acted as a springboard during the bullfights in 2013 and 2017.

“Are you ready for what is to come? Personally, I do not bet that this time will be different for bitcoins, “he added separate Fibonacci’s post.

At the time of writing, BTC / USD was trading at just under $ 66,000, briefly hitting the band as a maximum overnight.

Others claimed Sunday’s Taproot soft fork deployment is not yet fully appreciated. I Cointelegraph he noted, major improvements were followed by significant price increases, as was the case with Segregated Witness (“SegWit”) in 2017.

“The market has not appreciated the massive upgrade of Taproot bitcoin,” said Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investment Company. he wrote.

$ 135,000 “still in play”

Tell a PlanB analyst about the end of the month. “worst case scenario”A series of bitcoin price forecasts – they stand by their estimates.

Having guessed the BTC monthly balance sheet for almost exactly three consecutive months, PlanB now says that $ 98,000 by December 1 and $ 135,000 by January 1, 2022 are still achievable.

He is far from alone – like the Cointelegraph reported Several sources expect a move towards at least $ 85,000 in the coming weeks.

After a further delay, PlanB’s Stock-to-flow models were joined by further research showing how cyclical bitcoin really was – even since 2013.

However, one forecast last week said that while Bitcoin would reach a whopping $ 250,000 in January, it will ultimately refute one of the stock-to-flow models forever.

“Bull market distribution has started”

Could this be the beginning of the end of the bitcoin bull market of this cycle?

When we look at what long-term holders (LTHs) are doing, bitcoin seems to have entered its last, but most volatile, bull chapter.

Data from the analytical company Glassnode highlighted Analyst William Clemente shows that LTH investors have stopped accumulating net money and are now getting rid of coins.

This “sell-off”, characteristic of the bullish peaks, represents the first net reduction in LTH holdings since April, when BTC / USD reached a peak of $ 64,900, which remained the ceiling for six months.

“Long-term holders are buying BTC weakening and selling it by force,” Clemente commented.

“We have just received our first red prints about the change in LTH’s net position in more than 6 months, indicating that bull market distribution has begun.”

Graph of bitcoin LTH position change. Source: William Clemente / Twitter

Most recently, in the fourth quarter of 2020, LTHs began selling ahead of the dramatic rise in bitcoin prices, with distribution peaking and then declining before the historic high of $ 64,900 materialized.

The hash rate returns to historical highs

One aspect of bitcoin that is truly at an all-time high this week is the hash rate.

After a quick but still long recovery from the crash five months ago, the core network is now measuring what it did in late April to early May.

According to data from a live monitoring source MiningPoolStats, with the exception of peaks and troughs in the raw data, the hash rate is around 168 exahashes per second (EH / s).

Graph of raw bitcoin hash rate data. Source: MiningPoolStats

The accompanying graph shows the extent of progress since the miners began to move en masse away from China.

While the hash rate, which describes the computational power devoted to mining, can only be estimated, not accurately measured, the metric is now starting its first venture in unfamiliar territory for almost half a year.

I Cointelegraph reported, difficulty, probably the most important indicator of bitcoin ‘s nuclear strength, also continues to return to historical highs.

Sunday added another 4.7% in sum, which also means the ninth increase in difficulty in a row.

“Signs of foam”

Apart from bitcoin, traditional markets are beginning to unnerve – and not just investors.

At a conference last week, Raghuram Rajan, the former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, sounded the alarm over excessive stock growth.

“There are obvious signs of foam,” he said of the Nomura-Wolfe basket of popular American stocks, cited The Financial Times, among other things.

In what will sound more like bitcoin in periods of rapid price growth, the options are experiencing a serious volume – and the associated leverage effect.

“Everything seems crazy, bubbles are here, bubbles are there, everywhere,” FT quoted Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer of investment manager Neuberger Berman.

“It’s become a cliché, but we’re really in uncharted waters, in very unusual territory.”

While November is traditionally a solid month for both traditional financial and cryptomen markets, this tone raises existing suspicions about the “top-up” nature of stocks.

In the case of bitcoins, the problem revolves around the overall correlation between the two – although it has manifested itself in recent months, BTC may still be affected by sudden changes in sentiment elsewhere.

One example was Tesla, who fell into a step with bitcoin last week on the back of a 10% stake in CEO Elon Musk.